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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy.

  • By James D. Hamilton, Menzie Chinn
  • Based in United States of America
  • Roughly two posts per day
  • First post on

Posts per month

Data for this chart is available in the table below
Posts per month
Month starting Posts
Jan 2023 14
Feb 2023 43
Mar 2023 57
Apr 2023 44
May 2023 42
Jun 2023 30
Jul 2023 39
Aug 2023 55
Sep 2023 45
Oct 2023 31
Nov 2023 36
Dec 2023 6

Any gaps could be due to errors when fetching the blog’s feed.

Most recent posts

Is Economic Activity Really a Lot Lower than It Seems?
Lavorgna (SMBC Nikko) and Millar (Barclays) say look to GDI for a better estimate of economic activity. Both argue that GDI might better signal an incipient recession (USAToday): Figure 1: GDP (bold black), GDO (bold …
On , by Menzie Chinn, 319 words
Business Cycle Indicators including Monthly GDP
Monthly GDP, as estimated by SPGMI (formerly IHS Markit/Macroeconomic Advisers) drops 0.5% m/m (-6.3% annualized!) Figure 1: Nonfarm Payroll employment incorporating preliminary benchmark (bold dark blue), implied level using Bloomberg consensus as of 12/4 (blue …
On , by Menzie Chinn, 254 words
Guest Contribution: “Long-term yields, the term premium and US monetary policy”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Kevin Pallara, Luca Rossi, and Fabrizio Venditti of the Bank of Italy. The views presented in this note represent those of the authors and …
On , by Menzie Chinn, 1,818 words